The time for infrastructure investment is now

Based on publicly available forecasts of plant-based meat demand and production needs, this report explores a hypothetical production scenario: By 2030, plant-based meat has captured 6% of the global meat and seafood market, representing 25 million metric tons (MMT) of annual plant-based meat production.

We identify a looming potential for global supply squeezes of cornerstone ingredients like coconut oil and pea protein and estimate that the industry will need to operate at least 800 manufacturing facilities—each producing on average 30,000 metric tons of product annually—at a cost of at least $27B within the decade, underscoring the importance and urgency of bold infrastructure investments.

The private sector—investors, ingredient processors, extrusion equipment providers, and manufacturers alike—can realize significant financial upside by building out this new supply chain. Likewise, global governments should recognize that meaningful climate gains from a scaled shift towards plant-based meat will not be achievable in the near term unless they invest soon in open-access R&D and infrastructure for this burgeoning industry.

Chart: estimated cumulative global capital expenditure in structured plant protein extrusion facilities by 2030, assuming 25 mmt production capacity target.
GFI estimates that the plant-based meat industry collectively must invest at least $27B in capital expenditure into an estimated 810 extrusion facilities (each averaging 30,000 MT in annual throughput) to meet a 2030 global production target of 25 MMT.
Table of projected plant-based meat demand based on a 25 mmt production target by 2030, the corresponding market share of global ingredient production, and share of global raw commodity production for a variety of common plant-based meat ingredients including soy protein concentrate, soy protein isolate, wheat gluten, pea protein, coconut oil, canola oil, sunflower oil, and cocoa butter.
The plant-based meat industry is projected to require a nontrivial share of total global production for certain ingredients and corresponding raw commodities if demand growth continues.
Summary table of the protein concentration, nutrition, allergenicity, commercial stage, flavor, functionality, cost, and crop supply of various plant protein sources, from gfi’s plant protein primer.
This table is a partial excerpt of GFI’s Plant protein primer, an analysis of various plant proteins on key attributes like nutrition, functionality, price, and sourcing. The full guide includes profiles of major and emerging plant protein sources, combination and processing strategies, and consumer perceptions.
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Anticipating 2030 production requirements for plant-based meat

This seminar addresses the potential for global supply squeezes of cornerstone ingredients like coconut oil and pea protein in the coming years. Early investment, innovative partnerships, and research for alternative ingredients or sourcing strategies that have the potential to mitigate future ingredient shortages are also discussed.

Download the report

The report “Plant-based meat: Anticipating 2030 production requirements” is a scenario-based exploration of the substantial ingredient supply chain needs, manufacturing facility requirements, and level of investment necessary to avoid future supply constraints and successfully meet a global plant-based meat production target of 25 MMT annually within the next decade.


  • FAO projections of global crop and ingredient production volumes for common plant-based meat ingredients.
  • Forecasts of global crop and ingredient volumes necessary to satisfy the plant-based meat industry if demand growth continues.
  • Review of two key manufacturing techniques for producing structured plant protein: low- and high-moisture extrusion.
  • Estimation of the number of extrusion facilities necessary to satisfy  25 MMT of plant-based meat demand.
  • Anticipated capital and operating expenditures required to construct and operate extrusion facilities.
  • Recommendations to the industry for efficiently expanding industry-wide production capacity.
A closeup view of a plated plant-based burger with lettuce, tomatoes, and pickles


The science of plant-based meat

Learn about the science of plant-based meat. Discover resources and research on the latest technological developments and key scientific questions.

An image showing the report cover for “plant-based meat manufacturing capacity and pathways for expansion” photo credit: beyond meat

Plant-based meat manufacturing capacity and pathways for expansion

The analysis quantifies the existing global plant-based meat manufacturing landscape and evaluates pathways for expanding capacity to meet future demand.

The cover of the 2023 state of the industry report on plant-based meat, seafood, eggs, and dairy by the good food institute

State of the Industry Report: Plant-based meat, seafood, eggs, and dairy

This report details the commercial landscape, sales, investments, innovation trends, regulatory developments, and public funding in the plant-based meat, seafood, egg, and dairy industry.

Two workers in sterile clothing inside a food manufacturing facility

Plant-Based Meat Manufacturing Guide

Learn about plant-based meat manufacturing by extrusion and explore directories of ingredients, facilities, and co-manufacturers.

Spins graphic

Plant-based retail market overview

Explore sales data for plant-based meat, egg, and dairy products in the U.S. retail market. Find key category insights, size, sales growth, and purchase dynamics for the plant-based industry.

An assortment of beans in bowls on a white table, representing ingredients for plant-based meat

Plant Protein Primer

Find information on nutrition, functionality, price, sourcing, and consumer perceptions of plant protein sources for plant-based meat.