Plant-based meat: Anticipating 2030 production requirements

In recent years, consumer demand for plant-based meat has often outpaced the industry’s supply chain capabilities. This analysis quantitatively forecasts expected ingredient volume and manufacturing facility needs for the plant-based meat industry to identify and mitigate future production bottlenecks.

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The time for infrastructure investment is now

Based on publicly available forecasts of plant-based meat demand and production needs, this report explores a hypothetical production scenario: By 2030, plant-based meat has captured 6% of the global meat and seafood market, representing 25 million metric tons (MMT) of annual plant-based meat production.

We identify a looming potential for global supply squeezes of cornerstone ingredients like coconut oil and pea protein and estimate that the industry will need to operate at least 800 manufacturing facilities at a cost of at least $27B within the decade, underscoring the importance and urgency of bold infrastructure investments.

The private sector—investors, ingredient processors, extrusion equipment providers, and manufacturers alike—can realize significant financial upside by building out this new supply chain. Likewise, global governments should recognize that meaningful climate gains from a scaled shift towards plant-based meat will not be achievable in the near term unless they invest soon in open-access R&D and infrastructure for this burgeoning industry.

Pvm graphic 1 — GFI estimates that the plant-based meat industry collectively must invest at least $27B in capital expenditure into an estimated 810 extrusion facilities to meet 2030 global production targets.

Table of projected plant-based meat demand, the corresponding market share of global ingredient production, and share of global raw commodity production for a variety of common plant-based meat ingredients including soy protein concentrate, soy protein isolate, wheat gluten, pea protein, coconut oil, canola oil, sunflower oil, and cocoa butter. — The plant-based meat industry is projected to require a nontrivial share of total global production for certain ingredients and corresponding raw commodities.

Summary table of the protein concentration, nutrition, allergenicity, commercial stage, flavor, functionality, cost, and crop supply of various plant protein sources, from gfi’s plant protein primer. — This table is a partial excerpt of GFI’s Plant protein primer, an analysis of various plant proteins on key attributes like nutrition, functionality, price, and sourcing. The full guide includes profiles of major and emerging plant protein sources, combination and processing strategies, and consumer perceptions.

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The report “Plant-based meat: Anticipating 2030 production requirements” quantitatively forecasts the substantial ingredient supply chain needs, manufacturing facility requirements, and level of investment necessary to avoid future supply constraints and successfully meet global plant-based meat production targets in the next decade.

Contents:

FAO projections of global crop and ingredient production volumes for common plant-based meat ingredients.
Forecasts of global crop and ingredient volumes necessary to satisfy the plant-based meat industry.
Review of two key manufacturing techniques for producing structured plant protein: low- and high-moisture extrusion.
Estimation of the number of extrusion facilities necessary to satisfy the plant-based meat industry.
Anticipated global capital and operating expenditures required to construct and operate extrusion facilities.
Recommendations to the industry for efficiently expanding industry-wide production capacity.

Learn more about the science of plant-based meat

From crop development and ingredient processing to novel protein structuring methods, companies are innovating rapidly to create tasty, affordable, and convenient plant-based products. Visit our deep dive into the science behind plant-based meat.

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